Issue - meetings

That the presentation be noted and comments referred to Cabinet.

The Chief Executive introduced an update on the Medium Term Financial Strategy (MTFS) forecast for 2020/21-2022/23 prior to consideration by Cabinet.  A joint presentation with the Corporate Finance Manager covered the following:

·         The financial forecast as at February 2019

·         Review of pressures

o   Pay/workforce

o   Social care demands

o   Education pressures

o   Corporate financing pressures

o   Other pressures - updated and new

o   Risks

·         Next steps

·         Timeline

Since the report to County Council in February, the impact of reviewed existing pressures, new and emerging pressures and the additional use of reserves agreed at the budget stage had increased the forecasted budget gap for 2020/21 to £13.320m.  There were a number of pressures including assumptions on teachers’ pay, and the investment in Marleyfield Residential home and Holywell extra care which would help to meet service demand and offset further pressures.  The estimated initial impact of the Additional Learning Needs and Education Tribunal (Wales) Act 2018 was a new pressure with significant cost implications for all councils.

The Chief Executive advised that a large majority of the budget gap could only be funded by reform of national policy.  The views of the Committee and Cabinet would help the cross-party group to work with the Welsh Local Government Association (WLGA) in engaging with Welsh Government (WG).  The evidence-based case for increased national funding consisted of three main building blocks:

1.    Inflation protection against core costs e.g. pay and pensions;

2.    Severe service pressures, e.g. Out of County Placements and Looked After Children; and

3.    Full funding of new legislation e.g. Additional Learning Needs (ALN).

Councillor Roberts highlighted the importance of the cross-party group working together to formulate a response to the Minister for Local Government including the need to provide funding for national pay awards.

Following a question by Councillor McGuill, the Corporate Finance Manager explained that unused allocations had been put back into reserves to maintain prudent levels but that some risks had exceeded the amount of funding available.  He reminded Members that reserves were only for use on a one-off basis.

Councillor Axworthy spoke in support of a review of national funding policy.  She suggested that the 2016 Commission on local government finance in Wales - to which Flintshire had been a primary contributor - be re-visited and tailored for relevance at this stage to support the case to WG.  The Chief Executive said that there had been a lack of progress on the report’s recommendations and confirmed that representations on the funding formula were within the terms of reference for the cross-party working group.  He agreed that the report would be circulated to all Members as it was included in the reading list for the working group.

Councillor Heesom said that a mechanism was needed to ensure that respective Overview & Scrutiny Committees were satisfied with portfolio spend.  In welcoming Member involvement on the budget, Councillor Roberts said that the majority of expenditure was outside the Council’s control as it was directly allocated to support schools, social care, etc.  He  ...  view the full minutes text for item 104